(April 30, 2024) Total new-vehicle sales for April, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,304,600 units, a 0.9% decrease from April 2023 on a selling day adjusted basis, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData. April 2024 has 25 selling days, one fewer than April 2023.

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.6 million units, down 0.2 million units from April 2023.

New-vehicle retail sales for April 2024 are expected to increase when compared with April 2023. Retail sales of new vehicles are expected to reach 1,084,900 units, a 2.1% increase, on a selling day adjusted basis.

“April is showing mixed results, with an increase in retail sales offset by a decline in sales to fleet buyers. This is a notable change from recent months in which manufacturers have increased fleet sales. Although sales to retail buyers are rising, the rate of growth is modest. This is due in part to discounts from manufacturers and retailers stabilizing, coupled with ongoing deterioration of used-vehicle values that results in shoppers having less trade-in equity," said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power.

"While the stabilization of discounting is positive for short-term industry profitability, the modest growth rate means that inventory at dealerships is continuing to rise and discounting is expected to increase. This should elevate the sales pace at the expense of per unit profitability.

"Retail inventory is expected to finish around 1.8 million units, a 3.2% increase from March 2024 and a 40% increase from April 2023. Fleet mix is projected at 16.8%, down 2.5 percentage points from April 2023 and down 13.6% on a selling-day adjusted volume basis.

“The average new-vehicle retail transaction price is declining as manufacturer incentives rise, retailer profit margins fall, and availability of lower-priced vehicles increases compared to a year ago. Transaction prices are trending towards $45,093 — down $1,172 or 2.5% — from April 2023. The combination of slightly higher retail sales but lower transaction prices mean that consumers are on track to spend nearly $46.4 billion on new vehicles this month — 3.5% lower than April 2023 and the fourth-highest April on record."